Set Description
May 26, 2014
PREFACE:
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MY REGISTRY SET, THE CURRENT FRANKLIN PROOF NGC/PCGS/CAC/*+ POPULATIONS-- DESCRIBED BELOW-- WILL ILLUSTRATE RECENT, RARITY POP/VALUATION TRENDS/ISSUES.
As a special note:
Implicit in the discussions below-- is the connection that DEMAND enhances VALUATION. This concept requires another critical component FOR THIS EQUATION TO FULLY SUCCEED: " Rational expected norms" should be perceived/understood re: rarity/selling/trend issues. I hope this information was conveyed in the text of my narrative.
INTRODUCTION:
Re: MY REGISTRY SET:
A UNIQUE-HIGHEST CALIBER-FRANKLIN HALF PROOF REGISTRY SET: HIGHEST CAC certifications for ALL DATES utilizing collection/inventory + ALL DATES EVEREST certified/designated. TOP pop's in collection that are top cac pops-- 8/15 dates; SECONDARY TIER pops-- incorporating top CAC pops --3/15 dates.
FIVE dates in my collection (3 ULT'S & 2 CAMEOS) have top pop's with only 1 certified cac coin, while TWO dates (2 ULT'S) have top pop's of 2 certified cac coins.
ALL franklin proofs in collection/inventory HAVE--EVEREST certifications & are TOP DIES, confirmed with Rick Tomaska, leading expert Franklin cameo series/other cameos/mint state coins: R&I Coins, randicoins.com
Last updated 3 years ago, revisions in my set include: '51 ult 67, '52 ult 66+, '53 ult 67, '55 ult 69, '58 ult 68*, & '60 ult 69. New photos are noted in the GALLERY, illustrating new acquisitions/Everest certifications.
Refer to PHOTO GALLERY detail-- includes top die#'s, pop. analysis/trends, etc.
CAC POP'S IN MY COLLECTION ARE DELINEATED AS FOLLOWS, UTILIZING THE FOLLOWING RATIO:
TOTAL PCGS+NGC COINS CAC'D BY DESIGNATED GRADE/ PCGS+NGC TOTAL POP BY DESIGNATED GRADE(RATIO REF BELOW ### & IMPORTANT ABBREVIATION GRID DETAIL--, FURTHER BELOW****):
COINS IN MY COLLECTION, BY DATE, NOTED BELOW:
1950 68cameocacTP 1/1###
1951ULT67cacTP 2/6
1952ULT66+cacST 4/12
1953ULT67cacST 4/18
1954ULT68cacTP 2/15
1955ULT69 TP 0/2
1956DC69cacTP 4/127
1956TYPE1NGC69camTP 0/9
1957 69*cameocacTP 1/27
1958ULT68*cacST 6/33
1959ULT67cacTPNGC 1/13
1960ULT69 TP 0/10
1961ULT69cac TP 1/6
1962ULT69 TP 0/38
1963ULT69cacTP 1/25
TOTALS 27/342###
RATIO: 7.9% HAVE CAC CERT.
27 total CAC pop. certified coins (in the universe) from these TP & ST --designated grades: 11 of these coins/dates are in my collection.
342=total pcgs+ngc pop coins in these designated grades.
*CAC began operations in late 2007.
FOOTNOTES RE: REGISTRY SET NOTED ABOVE:
DISTINCT NUMBER #### IN THE NAA FRANKLIN COLL:
11/27 (11 DATES-=11 COINS, as prev. cited above) 40% OF ALL FRANKLIN PROOF CAC certifications for these yrs/grades are in the NAA FRANKLIN HALF PROOF COLLECTION.
Utilization of THE HIGHEST top/secondary tier franklin proofs that are cac'd-- ult/dc/cameo pops, INDICATE THE FOLLOWING: 91/999 ARE CAC CERTIFIED: a 9.1% rate.
When including both my NAA franklin collection/**alternate inventory: Highest CAC pops for ALL YEARS are achieved.
**Notation from above:
Alternate year inventory is utilized to attain highest CAC certifications, since CAC certification levels in some years are LOWER THAN -- pcgs/ngc highest, top pop's.
12/15 dates are ult/dc's, 9 of which are top pop's, balance of this total are second tier.
****ABBREVIATION GRID DETAIL---RE:NAA FRANKLIN SET INVENTORY NOTED ABOVE:
TP=TOP POP
ST=SECONDARY TIER
ULT=ULTRA CAMEO-NGC
DC=DEEP CAMEO-PCGS
RARITY COMMENTS RE: DATES/COINS IN MY COLLECTION, NOTED BELOW---REF: ABOVE
1950 68 cameo- key date, top pop of 1 @ ngc+top pop of 1 cac, none at this level @ pcgs. OVER AN 8 YEAR PERIOD,
there has been a ST pop INCREASE for the '50 67 cameo level, while the '50 68 cameo TP OF 1 has REMAINED THE SAME.
TP ngc/pcgs coins that have CAC TP's 1:
1950 68 cameo,1957 69* cameo, 1959 ult 67 @ngc, 1961 & 1963 ult 69's.
How about CAC TP'S of 2?
1951 ult 67 & 1954 ult 68.
1951 ULT/DC 67 TP-- 2 ngc coins-- certified CAC.
1952 1 ULT 66+ 1 DC 66 + ST key date @ pcgs. Total of 2+ key dates '50-'59, @ pcgs/ngc. Refer to photo gallery-- secondary photo for "toning detail" example.
At least 4 (half) of the '52 & '53 ult/dc 67-- cac coins-- are pcgs coins.
1954 ult 68 TP 1 ngc/1 pcgs cac'd for top pop.
The 1955 ULT 69 TP in my collection: First ult/dc certified in early '90's, noted in Rick Tomaska's second Franklin Half proof book, 2001-- pg 174. None certified at this level at pcgs.
1956 DC69 TP All 4 pcgs cac coins, photo of my coin in Rick Tomaska's third book--2012. 4/127 cac'd.
'56 type I & '56 type 2 EAGLE--REFER TO PHOTO GALLERY---- DETAIL PHOTO COMPARISONS.
1957 ngc 69* cameo--TP, only one for this grade/date cac'd: 8/27 have star * designation. * Star certification, obverse ult, reverse cameo. Highest pcgs cameo level @ 68 grade.
1958 ult/dc 68* ST. Star designation rare for KEY DATE, 2/12 ngc coins/total 33 pcgs/ngc.. The three top KEY * dates (utilizing ngc pt valuations) re: top pop/ult--secondary dates: '50 65*, '58 68*, '55 68*. At least 4/6 of the cac coins for the '58 date/grade--are pcgs coins.
1959 ult/dc 67 TP@ ngc. Key date, only 2/32 cac'd pcgs/ngc---for all grades. The two coins cac'd as ult/dc's are '59 DC 66+ and '59 ult 67.
THERE ARE NEW, HIGHER POP'S-- OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS:
New TOP pop's have occurred for the '50 ult 67, '50 69 proof & '63 ult 69*, first ULT 69*STAR.
POP. ANALYSIS/TRENDS RE: ULT/DC 69's: 3 & 12 YEAR HISTORICAL REVIEWS:
Re: cac pop's @ the 69 level: there have been no changes in last 3 years, 6 ult'sDC'S AND 2 CAMEOS, 4 DC'S from '56.
Re: pcgs 69 DC pop's: ONLY-increased from 72 to 77 in last 3 years. GOING BACK FURTHER?
In March 2002--12 years ago-- PCGS 69 DC total pop's were @ 66.
TP Increases re: pcgs 69 DC last 12 yrs --has been extremely low: '56 DC 69 +4 to 39 & '62 +5 to 12. No change noted for '57, '59, '60 & + 1 for the '61 & '63 year..
Re: ngc ult 69's last 3 years: Minimal increases in TP's, minimal impact to absolute rarity/universal standard (excludes '56 ult 69 from analysis-- pop. increase "open to interpretation": REFER TO ARGUMENT SECTION--###@@@-- BELOW-- FOR FURTHER DETAIL). Another 17 coins entered the ULT 69 franklin pop's involving 7 dates, minimal changes. '60 & '62 ult 69 had the greatest increase: '60-- +4 to 5 & ' '62--+7 to 26.
In March 2002, NGC ULT 69 POP was MUCH LOWER than PCGS DC 69 POP: PCGS had 66 coins while NGC had 10. Included @ NGC were the following dates/ult 69 pop's: '55 (1), '56 type 2--- (7), '62 (2) coins.
Currently, as of 5/26/14, there are 139 coins that are ult 69's @ NGC: 88 are noted as '56 ult 69's. If we exclude the largest ult/dc pop ('56 ult/dc 69) from analysis for comparability: PCGS currently has 38 DC 69's vs NGC ULT'S 69's @ 51.
IF WE SEGRAGATE ULT/DC 69 TP POP'S BY CERT. AGENCY & DATE--CAN WE IDENTIFY-- CERTAIN TRENDS???
The TOP POP. patterns noted above+ GALLERY DETAIL re: TP & ST POP'S, indicate the following @ 3 year historical comparisons:
Re: My top pop/secondary tiers in Registry Set at either pcgs/ngc:
'53 DC 67, '56 ult 69, '57 69 cameo, '62 & '63 ult 69's have had pop. increases, BUT CAC POP's ARE STABLE & ALL OF THE OTHER DATES, BY GRADE/OTHER CERT. SERVICE-- HAD --STABLE--- PCGS/NGC/CAC TP/ST POPS.
COMPLEXITY IN POP INCREASE ANALYSIS: '53 DC 67, '56 ult 69, '57 69* cameo, & '62 ult 69:
ARGUMENTS###@@@ can be made that pop. increases for the dates/grading services--- noted above, MAY NOT NEGATE VALUATIONS. Why? My collection inventory has alternate graded service, coins-- which have had stable & lower pop's ('53 ult 67 & '56 DC 69), where there is potential demand from EITHER pcgs or ngc registries; &, even if pop's increase for a '57 69* cameo, there is still only 1 cac coin. Perhaps a stable CAC pop can also apply to other pop increases from other dates, still enhancing value? or, perhaps an EXTREMELY LOW CAC POP., *+ coin, &/or EVEREST designation offsets potential pop. increases. i.e '53 ult 67 4/18 cac pop. includes stable 5 pop at ngc,. '56 DC 69 4/127 cac pop. includes stable 39 top pop @ pcgs. ADDED COMPLEXITY: perhaps a '56 or '62 ult 69 that has a larger top pop. base may only minimally impact the rarity scale, if referencing Q. David Bowers Universal Rarity Scale, detailed further below####.
VALUATION ISSUES: Over time, pop's increase with MOST EVERY COIN TYPE. The issue that needs to bedetermined is: Can one identify which pop's are NOT increasing? & if the pop is increasing---How does this pop. increase correlate to Q David Bowers Universal Rarity Scale & other important variables that add premium valuations, ##NOTED BELOW? Will this still translate into higher dollars for your investment?
i.e. ##Absolute rarity standards (Universe Rarity Scale developed by#### Q.David Bowers/Rick Tomaska--cvi rarity index scale). TOP POP, Secondary Tier, etc., # of coins in that pop.
Other intrinsic variables that IMPACT VALUE: Cac/everest standards; +*indications, top die intensity; & ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOAL THAT STRIVES FOR: PROBLEM FREE/EYE-APPEALING COINS.
####Re: Q. David Bowers, Universal scale. Lowest pop's are much more sensitive to absolute rarity standards (i.e. pop of 1, 2, 4 vs. a pop of 75 & 125). Two different coins with a pop of 75 & 125 may be rated @ the same rarity level, while a pop of 2 is obviously much rarer than a pop of 10. Rarity classifications have lower pop. spreads at the lowest levels, thereby, having greater impact on absolute rarity standards.
VARIABLES THAT ENHANCE A STRONG SALE:
SELLER SHOULD establish a Minimum Reserve @ auction houses.
Obviously, seller that has PQ coins, should stand firm, & avoid buyers that are not highly motivated to buy, those that are "looking for a bargain."
IMPORTANT CORRELATION: higher registry point valuation/ranking-- FOR KEY DATES-- equate to higher pricing; &,
Low top pop's @ EITHER pcgs/ngc should translate to higher dollar pricing due to their unique pop. numbers: STRICTLY PCGS/NGC FRANKLIN PROOF COLLECTORS ARE IMPACTED BY THIS SITUATION.
Obviously from the preceding analysis, there should be BUYER DEMAND, & rarity must be "proven,"based on a long-track record.
Re: PQ RARE COINS that are in franklin top pop's: RECENT HISTORY INDICATES THERE HAVE BEEN MAJOR PRICES INCREASES!!
Prices are more closely monitored through pcgs/ngc/Heritage Auctions. More efficient PC tools can now be utilized to evaluate historical track records. MAJOR UPDATED, NGC PRICE GUIDE FOR FRANKLIN PROOFS-- ARE RECENT-- WITH MAJOR "GREEN" UPTICK PRICING CHANGES NOTED, probably reflecting HIGHEST PQ coins--- recently sold.
AS FAR AS THE TRACK RECORD OF FRANKLIN PROOF ULT/DC TOP POPS:
The logistics on how/why these ult/dc's have extreme, limited production numbers at the U.S. mint, adds credence to their absolute rarity standards.
To illustrate further:
From all certified pcgs/ngc franklin proofs/cameos/ult-dc's, only 2.9% (7,662/263,044) are ult-dc's!
OBSERVATIONS:
HIGHERPREMIUMVALUATIONS have RECENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED on TP/ST coins that include: CAC,+*, & Everest designations. These are PQ (PREMIUM QUALITY, PROBLEM FREE COINS).
DO NOT COMPARE "APPLES TO ORANGES" OR SHOULD I SAY "LEMONS"!!!!
BEWARE OF PROBLEM COINS that develop after encapsulation--aggravated by contaminant issues. When these coins occasionally hit the market, a down-bias on price valuations may be noted. MAJOR PRICE CONTRAST can be seen for TWO COINS IN THE SAME GRADE. The avid franklin half collector will notice this distinction, & WILL NOT SELL HIS/HER PROBLEM-FREE COIN AT A "BARGAIN PRICE."
ONE SHOULD OBVIOUSLY ACQUIRE 'EYE-APPEALING" COINS, that have greater cameo intensity than the "average coin."
When evaluating imperfections noted on a coin--Hopefully the imperfection is subtle, rather than obvious. A "non-obvious imperfection," will enhance grade level/eye appeal standards for the coin.
THERE SHOULD BE CONSISTENT LIGHTING STANDARDS FOR COIN EVALUATION:
WHAT IS NECESSARY TO REVIEW THE COIN IN A FAIR & EQUITABLE MANNER? If you look at the coin in the sunlight, standards would be too high! Certification agencies (ngc/pcgs) use a magnification loop @ 10x's, with appropriate lighting: incandescent bulbs @ 70/100 watts. Halogen lights are too bright for this review. Hopefully, when you evaluate a coin, you will consider the same lighting/loupe magnification procedures as ngc/pcgs.
THERE ARE UNIQUE TOP POP'S OF 1, 2, * (STAR), + (PLUS) !!!!!
How many coins in the franklin proof series have top pop's (pcgs/ngc combined) of ONE?--4
Which collections have these 4 coins?-- &, Can one document that there are CORRELATIONS to the ABSOLUTE RARITY POP #'S & NGC POINT SYSTEM?? YES!!
LET'S ELABORATE ON THESE 4 COINS/CORRELATION ISSUE:
'50 69 NGC PROOF. Highest level 67 proof @ pcgs. This coin established a recent new, top pop which has not been seen in any ngc registry set, @ 5,450 ngc registry points, #2 ranking re: proof level. The '53 69 proof, another coin, is ranked #1 re: proof level ranking @ 5,656 ngc point valuation, pop # one@both pcgs/ngc. When comparing the '50 69 proof to other grade 69 dates, most have much higher pop's, excluding the '54 date @ the 20 pop level, @ 3,300 pts.
'50 68 NGC CAMEO CAC, IN THE NAA FRANKLIN HALF COLLECTION (Only one of the four coins in this group that is CAC'd), purchased from R&I Coins in 2006, $35,000. Highest level @ PCGS: 67+cameo. FRANKLIN PROOF RANKING of the '50 68 cameo is #4 IN THE SERIES, utilizing ngc registry points, @ the 8,500 level. Another ngc point distinction: HIGHEST NGC CAMEO point valuation in the series, over 3,000 points more than any other TP CAMEO.
'53 ULT 68, highest level @ pcgs-- 67DC. This coin was acquired by DR. MARK DIXON-- #1 RANKING, NGC FRANKLIN PROOF COLLECTION. Second highest ngc point valuation for any franklin proof--@ 10,500 point level. FYI: The #1 ngc point ranking coin: '50 ult 67 @500 points more than the '53 ult 68-- @11,000 level. The '53 realized $65,000 in 2004 @ Heritage, photo available for review, on-line.
'59 DC 69, highest level @ NGC, ULT 67. Ranked #3 re: ngc point valuation @ the 10,000 level----Noted in #1 EBLIII COLLECTION@ the PCGS FRANKLIN PROOF REGISTRY, last sold for $70,000?---1999-- from R&I coins?
THE RARITY OF THESE 4 COINS ABOVE, CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED.
How about--top pop's of two???
'50 67 ULT-2 recent new coins hitting the top pop. Highest level at pcgs, 66DC. Never sold on the open market?
'52 67ULT/DC (1@ ngc,1@pcgs).
'53 69 proof (1@pcgs,1@ngc).
'55 69ULT In the NAA Franklin
Half Collection, highest level @ pcgs, 68DC.
'58 69 ULT- Highest level @ pcgs, 68DC.
THESE 5 DATES (10 COINS) ABOVE ARE ALSO PART OF THAT ELITE GROUP.
DELINEATING ANOTHER RARE VARIABLE: TOP POP OF 1 (ONE) ULTRA/DC BY EITHER PCGS/NGC CERT. SERVICE:
'50 66DC TP@ 1 COIN
'51 67DC TP@ 1 COIN
'52 67DC/ULT TP 1 COIN EACH
'53 68ULT-- TP--1COIN
'56 ult 68 type I TP 1 COIN
'59 DC 69 TP 1 COIN
'61 DC 69 TP1 COIN, crossed
from NGC?
8 COINS TOTAL-5 @PCGS/
3 @ NGC.
UTILIZING STAR*/+PLUS TP & ST POP'S:
Only a few key dates have entered the pop's: (2) '50 67+ pcgs cameo, (1) '50 ngc 67+* cameo, (1) '51 DC 66+, (2) '52 ULT/DC '66+'s, (1) '52 67+* ngc cameo, (1) '58 ult 68*, & (1) '63 ult 69*. Star/+ designations @ KEY DATE T/P & ST ult/dc/cameo levels--- COMMAND MAJOR PREMIUM VALUATIONS.
THERE ARE VARIABLES THAT HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON RARITY/VALUATIONS, BY DATE:
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE '60-'63 DATES HIGH US MINTAGE DATES & REVIEW RATIO RARITY ANALYSIS:
Determining which dates/top pop ult/dc grades have extremely high US mintage pop's with extremely low top pop's: i.e. '60 & '61 dates-- CAN BE ESTABLISHED--- BY CALCULATING RATIO PERCENTAGES -I.E. '61ULT/DC69--6 TP COINS /OVER 3,000,000 (TOTAL US PROOF MINTAGE)--- CONCLUSION: THE RATIO PERCENTAGE FOR THE '61 DATE IS ONE OF THE RAREST FOR ALL FRANKLIN DATES..
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT HIGH US MINT POP'S-- IMPACT VALUATION?
Can it be inferred that there are potentials for pop. increases to continue-- re: '62 & '63 ult 69 dates? Historically, the pop's for these dates have consistently, been increasing (currently ult/dc TP'S@ 25-38 level); &, it seems apparent that NGC has accounted for this scenario by placing NGC POINT VALUATION @ THE 3,800 LEVEL, 200 points higher than the '56 ult/dc 69 coin (currently TP'S @ the 127 level, COMPARABILITY?).
The same cannot be said for the '60 & '61 ult 69 dates with NGC POINT VALUATIONS @ THE 6,700 LEVEL. TP'S are extremely low & stable: ult/dc pop's are at the 6-10 level.
PRICING IN THE MARKET PLACE HAS ALREADY REFLECTED THESE TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
As previously stated, CORRELATIONS exist between ngc point valuations/pricing.
ADD-- OTHER INDIRECT VARIABLES TO VALUATIONS--BY DATE:
Ranking LOWEST ULT/DC total pop's BY YEAR-- i.e. '56 Type 1, '50, '59, '52.
Lowest proof mintage pop's in the early years: '50 to '54--adding credence-- very few-- will be certified--in the future? Is the "well dry," after 25 years of pcgs/ngc certifications?
Other unique variables that add rarity, noted by year: '50 date-- many have shallow mirrors, hairlines & glue spots; later years ('58-62) many have milk spots/hairlines; &, reverse ult's/dc's are not strong enough forult/dcstandards('50, '52,'57,'59, '61).
Top Dies (ULTRA/DC+PLUS), most have been illustrated/ categorized in Rick Tomaska's first book on Cameo's.
&, FINALLY:
Add POOR PACKAGE DESIGN ('50-mid-55 period), meltdown rarity impact due to silver meltdown in the 80's, & premature die wear issues impactingfrequency/quality for ult/dc cameos-- ('57 thru '59).
HIGHER ASPIRATIONS? NOT AN EASY TASK!
HIGHER DATES/POP'S CERTIFIED THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN MYREGISTRYSET:
'50 DC66 ST 1 coin
'50 ULT 67 2 coins
'52 ULT/DC67 2 coins
'53 ULT 68 1 coin
'56 TYPE I ULT/DC 68 4 coins
'57 ULT/DC 69 5 coins
'58 ULT 69 2 coins
'59DC68&69 2 coins
'63 ULT 69* 1 coin
total 20 coins/11 are NGC
5 DATES PCGS
7 DATES NGC
TOTAL OF--- 7,662 ult/dc's certified.
A CLEARER PERSPECTIVE-- How many coins are higher utilizing the ngc point valuation system?
ONLY 20 OUT OF 7,662 COINS----ARE HIGHER!
CONCLUSION:
THEPOP'S/VALUATION/TRENDS NOTED ABOVE, ONLY TELLS PART OF THE STORY ABOUT NUMISMATIC FRANKLINS.
THE REAL STORY: ENJOY/LEARN THE PROCESS OF COLLECTING THE FRANKLIN ULT-DC/CAMEO/PROOFS---- APPRECIATING THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF REACHING YOUR GOAL!
RE: THE NAA FRANKLIN HALF COLLECTION:
THERE ARE SEVERAL INDEPENDENT, CERTIFICATION SOURCES THAT WERE UTILIZED:
THE FIVE SOURCES INCLUDE:
PCGS/NGC/CAC/*+CERTIFICATIONS/&EVEREST--TOP DIE ENDORSEMENTS from R&I Coins, Rick Tomaska.
Due; to the UNIQUENESS of this FRANKLIN REGISTRY SET, it is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DUPLICATE THE CALIBER OF THIS SET: When utilizing specified year/top grades in my set, ONLY 7.9% of ALL franklin proofs certified by pcgs/ngc are CAC CERTIFIED. FROM THAT TOTAL, 40% of all franklin proof cac certifications are in this franklin registry set.
For further information on cac populations, refer to cac.com
